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叙利亚、伊斯兰国和世界末日

1.最新进展

9月30日之前,最重要的事件是伊斯兰国的崛起。

9月30日,俄国介入,事情陡变,这是一个转折点。On 8 October 2015, the U.S. officially announced the end of the Pentagon’s $500 million program to train and equip Syrian rebels in an acknowledgment that the program had failed,标志着美国承认前一阶段工作的失败。Two weeks after the start of the Russian campaign in Syria, The New York Times stated that the conflict was turning into an all-out proxy war between the U.S. and Russia(叙利亚冲突已经成为美俄两国代理人之战)。10月27日, the US would no longer hesitate to engage in “direct action on the ground” in Iraq and Syria (WSJ)(美国可能会派地面部队进入叙利亚)。10月31日,俄国客机坠毁,或为伊斯兰国所为。11月31日,巴黎大爆炸,伊斯兰国组织宣称负责。

11月8日,WSJ news,"senior U.S. military leaders have proposed sending more forces into Europe on a rotating basis to build up the American presence and are stepping up training exercises to counter potential Russian interference with troop transfers in the event of a crisis with Moscow”。 “Aggression left unanswered is likely to lead to more aggression,” “对侵略的纵容很可能会导致更多的侵略” - Gen. Mark Milley, the chief of staff of the U.S. Army(美军的总参谋长)

2.危机原因

(1)直接原因。Syria’s authoritarian government, which has been dominated by the Baath (Renaissance) Party since 1963, and the Al Asad family since 1970. President Bashar al Asad’s father—Hafiz al Asad—ruled the country as president from 1971 until his death in 2000(阿萨德父子统治叙利亚高达44年);阿拉伯之春成为催化剂。自2010年12月突尼斯一些城镇爆发民主运动以来,阿拉伯世界一些国家民众纷纷走上街头,要求推翻本国的专制政体的行动。叙利亚的抗议在2011年1月26日开始,并演变成军事冲突延续至今。

(2)叙利亚国家治理水平下降

2004-2009期间,尽管政府效率和监管质量有提升,叙利亚国民自由受限、政治稳定性脆弱、缺乏法治、腐败上升,存在潜在的治理危机。2014年国家治理指数全面下降 。下图数据来自世界银行。

3.利益各方

(1)叙利亚危机交战各方关系总图。系非常复杂,有十几、甚至几十方夹杂其间。叙利亚内战已经演变为美国和俄国之间的代理人之战

(2)美国:冷战期间:叙利亚与美国关系长期以来处于冷淡状态 ;冷战结束后:海湾战争期间,叙利亚反对伊拉克吞并科威特,叙美关系为改善,另一方面对叙利亚干预黎巴嫩事务以及支持真主党和哈马斯,2003年美国将叙利亚升级为“恐怖主义国家”,实施制裁,美叙关系彻底破裂;阿拉伯之春:叙利亚危机爆发后,美国认为推翻阿萨德政权的机会来临。

(3)俄国:冷战时期:叙苏结盟;叙利亚危机爆发后,俄罗斯反对西方动武,具体原因有三:俄国担心伊斯兰极端势力向俄国渗透,威胁俄国家安全;保卫俄罗斯在独联体外硕果仅存的海军基地,即叙利亚的塔尔图斯港 ;分散对乌克兰战争的注意力, The Economist, Oct 9th 2015;经济原因(俄国对叙利亚的军售据说占俄国对外军售额的1/10), Foreign Affairs

(4)伊朗。The relationship between Iranian and Syrian governments has sometimes been described as the Axis of Resistance, which commonly refers to a Shiite anti-Israel and anti-western alliance between Iran, Syria, the  Lebanese  militant group Hezbollah, and Sunni Hamas

(5)伊斯兰国。Too few  friends and too many foes。The Islamic State is no mere collection of psychopaths. It is a religious group with carefully considered beliefs, among them that it is a key agent of the coming apocalypse. Here’s what that means for its strategy—and for how to stop it.(伊斯兰国并不仅仅是一群疯子聚在一起。它是一个宗教团体,有深思熟虑的信仰,其中之一就是认为自己是末日决战的关键力量 )。The Islamic State awaits the army of “Rome”,  whose defeat at Dabiq, Syria, will initiate the countdown to the apocalypse(伊斯兰国在等待在叙利亚的大比丘击败“罗马的军队(或指美国/西方的军队)”,然后开始世界末日倒计时)。The Atlantic, March 2015

4.a big picture

(1)俄国: Moscow's intervention in Syria has the West concerned that for the first time in nearly thirty years, The Kremlin doesn't fear a direct confrontation (俄国在三十年来第一次不掸于和西方正面对峙).

(2)美国: “for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. Department of Defense is reviewing and updating its contingency plans for armed conflict with Russia. 自苏联解体后的第一次,美国国防部现正检讨和更新一旦与俄罗斯发生武装冲突时的应急计划,” September 18, 2015, Foreign Policy

(3)伊朗:  The coming of Imam Mahdi cannot take place under the current circumstances, and in order for that to happen the Middle East needs to witness major changes. To create those changes, there is a need for “regional preparedness”, 伊玛目马赫迪(先知)的到来可能不会发生在当前形势下,为了要做到这一点,中东地区需要见证重大变化。为了创建这些变化,有必要做一些区域性的准备工作 Ali Saeedi, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s representative in the Revolutionary Guards伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在伊朗革命卫队的代表,  June 15, 2014, The Daily Caller

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